The No. 22/24 Kansas State Wildcats are 15-4, 4-3 and host Oklahoma with a chance to push a little bit farther toward the top of the Big 12 standings. The Jordan Henriquez one-game “indefinite suspension” silliness is behind this team as February looms, and so it seems a good time to look at some things and discuss whether they’re worth buying, holding or selling as the back half of the conference season gets underway.
Before that, however, here’s one for you: Under head coach Frank Martin, K-State is 103-4 when leading with 5 minutes left in a game and 4-40 under him when trailing at that point. Holy. Freaking. Spectrum.
Now, on to other matters…
- On the topic of Hernandez, let’s start there and with the big men in general: Hold. With Hernandez restored fully (we assume, though that’s dangerous since we never truly know with Martin, do we?), it will be interesting to see how head coach Frank Martin distributes minutes among his big men. Does J.O. go right back to his 18-20 minutes per contest? Or, now that the seal has been broken on Diaz, does the staff try to keep him at the 17 minutes average he played the last three games? That decision probably rests on how comfortable the coaches are with Diaz’s production. He averaged 4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.7 blocks and 2 turnovers in his last three games; reasonable in a fill-in situation. But, I don’t know if it demands he keep playing the amount of time he’s seen recently. I suppose if he out-performs others in practice, he’ll get time on the floor, but the best-case scenario for the team obviously would be to have J.O. regain his form. That said, it seems we’ve been asking for that a lot this year, and Martin said his junior center has struggled with his focus. Maybe now that corner has been turned, and he can start playing the offensive high post, and overall, with a little authority once again.
If so, it would take a little of the pressure off of Thomas Gipson, who could use some help while he continues his own adjustment to Big 12 play. Gipson is averaging 5.9 points and 3.4 rebounds in Big 12 play – down substantially from his non-conference averages of 10.4ppg and 7.1rpg. His points are down, along with everybody else’s, as Rodney McGruder’s game of late has demanded he take more shots. So, there’s no knock there. Rebounding, however, you’d like to see Gipson, or another big, rebound better. The only players overall to see their rebounding numbers increase between conference average and overall average are McGruder, Diaz, Nino Williams and Victor Ojeleye; the last three because playing time increased as Martin searched for an answer and some energy within games. Williams is now out with his MCL injury, but regardless, the bulk of that responsibility needs to be taken back by Henriquez, Gipson and Jamar Samuels (more on him later), and it can be considering there has been plenty of opportunity of late. Why? Well, as Texas head coach Rick Barnes said following K-State’s win over the Longhorns, the Wildcats’ best offense might be offensive rebounding. That sounds great until we realize offensive boards mean the ball didn’t go through the hoop the first (or second, or third) time. The Wildcats have found some points from boards, as they do. But, chances at offensive boards continue, it also means…
- The outside shooting woes continue: Hold. Had I written on this a month about a month ago, how different would it have looked? The team was just finished with Hawaii, and virtually everything McGruder, Will Spradling and Angel Rodriguez shot from the outside went in. Since Big 12 play, however, Spradling is shooting just .278 FG and .281 from three. He is 15-of-54 from the field, which is important considering it is the second-most attempts on the team behind McGruder’s 104 shots the past seven games. Part of that comes from his averaging 30.4 minutes per game; more opportunities are going to present themselves over longer time. But, if the shots aren’t going, for whatever reason (see below), and guys aren’t rebounding (see even further below), then it becomes a substantial piece to the puzzle of how and why this team struggles to find consistent points, averaging a fifth-ranked 69.9 ppg in conference play. (Overall, KSU averages 74.5 ppg this year, which is also fifth among Big 12 teams.)
Spradling is by no means alone. McGruder is the lone ‘Cat to average double-figures since Big 12 play began, and, unless you enjoy a good horror story, you shouldn’t look at what K-State has done lately from the outside. In its last three games, KSU is 11-of-38 from behind-the-arc (28.9 percent), which includes going 7-of-15 from 3-pt range against Texas. In Big 12 play, McGruder and Rodriguez have managed to shoot above 40 percent, with Angel hitting 3-of-6 his past two games. The next two, however, Spradling and Samuels (who is tied with Rodriguez at 14 3-pt attempts in conference games), are buried at .281 and .214, respectively.
Martin likes to say that the KSU offense is good not when shots are open, but when the right guys are in the right spots and getting them. That’s a fair way to look at things, but one could make a case that if shots aren’t falling from a certain spot for a certain guy, then what once was “good” may not be, at least not in the immediate short-term. While you don’t want a guy to quit shooting, it still doesn’t hurt to adjust just a little, maybe even use him as a decoy to some degree in order to free up other options – until the shots start falling again, at least. A little deeper, Martin also likes to say how tough it is to play night-in and night-out in the Big 12. It’s absolutely true. The defenses are nastier (Missouri of late, aside), your legs start to burn a little quicker this time of year, and so does the mind as constant challenges are in front of you. Tiredness is concentration’s worst enemy, and when a little adversity is mixed in, bad decision-making (like taking early, forced shots) happens. Do that a few times, and it leads to things like wondering if…
- Will Spradling’s recent slump is about over, or it stays awhile: Hold. This one’s got a few layers to it, it seems, which makes it complicated. Are Will’s recent shooting woes the sickness itself, or are they the symptom of something a little bigger going on? I would lean just a little toward the latter. Spradling, still only a sophomore, spent his offseason training and playing with the mindset that this year’s team was his and McGruder’s to lead. They would be the starting guards, Rodriguez would come off the bench, and things would go from there. Well, as Rodriguez’s role has increased, Spradling is facing, and enduring, having to reassess his own place within the offense and do it on the fly.
He’s not the starting point now, or hasn’t been the past three games (which can be hard enough to handle on its own mid-season); his shot attempts are down the past few games; his confidence has waned a bit; and it’s led to things like his pressing some and pulling up for quick jumpers to begin a possession – something he normally doesn’t do. He hasn’t let those things affect his defense, however, and as long as that continues, his minutes won’t change. I take his ability to compartmentalize his game from that standpoint as a testament to his mental toughness. And, therefore, I think he eventually pulls through in good shape overall. But, it may take a little while longer for him in readjusting his own style and personal goals in the middle of Rodriguez, who continues to mature, and McGruder, who has elevated his game into…
- Rodney McGruder’s All-Big 12 season – Buy, and buy big. Not nearly as complicated is seeing McGruder has exploded in his junior year. And, to be honest, there’s not really any reason to think he can’t continue what he’s done thus far because his game hasn’t changed; it’s just gotten better. He hasn’t had to rely on an overly-ridiculous percentage from three, shoot 90 percent from the free throw line, or find some other quirky way to be effective. No, when McGruder has taken over games, he’s simply found a way to use his size, strength and healthy knees (i.e. vertical leap) to finish plays near the rim. The next step for McGruder will be to eliminate the need to press, which he does too much at times, still. That’s extremely nit-picky, however, as he’s been the most consistent, and most dangerous, offensive weapon for KSU this year. It’s been great to watch someone regularly get it done, inside especially, because the “regularly” part isn’t something that can be said for a few but especially for one guy in particular who, it seems, by now, has answered his own question of whether…
- Jamar Samuels is going to finish at K-State the same way he came in. Of course, this is in reference to the good-Jamar, bad-Jamar and never knowing which is going to show up from game to game. So, wouldn’t it be so much easier if the answer to this was to sell? Yes, of course it would, but the answer is it isn’t that nothing with Samuels is that easy, so buy it. Buy the fact that, even with his career about 90% complete, nobody knows if it will be 12-pt., 12-reb. Jamar (Oklahoma State two games ago), or zero-point, zero-rebound, foul-out in 14 minutes (Texas Tech last game) Jamar. He also had a couple of turnovers in that game, which weren’t really an issue because Tech is that bad, but it leads to the bigger picture potential issue that…
- Turnovers will continue to stay high: Short-term, hold. Long-term, eh…let’s say sell. In Big 12 play, the ‘Cats are turning the ball over 15.9 times and allowing 18.4 points off those wasted possessions. Call me an optimist here, but the more experience guys like Rodriguez, Gipson and Diaz get, the better they will be with decision-making and valuing the ball. Martin has lamented the 5 spot’s inability to hold on to the ball, and though it’s taken some time for the lesson to sink in, I think it will eventually. I also think as Spradling works his way back into his old form, he’ll be better also. It will take only slight improvement to get back to the 14.7 turnovers averaged during non-con play, but even two more possessions resulting in scores could mean eight-point swings. A couple of those in key moments would go a long ways toward seeing…
- The Cats remain near the top of the Big 12 standings: Looking back at things, this might be the easiest buy ever. The fact is this: despite the turbulent nature with with K-State progresses through the course of a regular season – lost offense at times, semi-organized yet chaotic substitution patterns, suspensions, etc. – by season’s end, Frank Martin does not allow his team to finish worse than fourth in the Big 12. Should things wind up as I think they will, it will be five years that he never has. In November, I said KSU would finish second. That will take some work, especially with road games at Iowa State, Texas, Baylor and Missouri still to come. But, from the start, I thought KSU’s overall depth was perhaps the best in the Big 12. That’s proven to be right. And, the spread out time (eight players average at least 20 minutes) should have the team set up with fresh legs, a good seed and the chance for a solid run through the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City come early March.
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