Impact of Project 2025 on Rural Kansas Education

I’ll be transparent here: I’m at a loss for words after further gaming out what rural Kansas public eduction will look like if Project 2025 were to wipe away the Department of Education. Your taxes = up. Your school choice = down. Your kids’ educational (and overall) futures = anything but solid.

Below, you can see the results of what my additional back-and-forth with ChatGPT provided. (Here’s the first round.)

I tried finding optimism. I tried providing a loophole for any bit of light to shine through the dark and alleviate the growing dread and concern I have for Kansas’ education system. I was given none.

There is no good that comes out of this – and certainly no magic “redirecting of federal funds” I’ve been told will happen by too many Facebook experts. Sigh…

In any case, I’ve settled into believing all I can do at this point is keep paying attention and keep providing information to all who will be affected by this. It’s not fun. I wish it were different. It’s not.

So… here we are…

Projected Effects from Project 2025 Implementation on Rural Kansas Education (Partial Implementation Scenario)

Decreased Federal Funding (High Impact)
- What Happens?
  - Title I funding for low-income schools is scaled back or phased out.
  - Special education funding (IDEA) is reduced, affecting students with disabilities.
  - Grants supporting school nutrition, teacher recruitment, and technology are cut.
- Effect on Rural Schools:
  - Schools with small tax bases (which rely more on federal aid) will struggle to cover costs.
  - More local tax hikes or program cuts to make up for lost funding.
  - Consolidation of small schools due to budget shortfalls.

Increased Push for School Choice & Privatization (Moderate to High Impact)
- What Happens?
  - Expansion of voucher programs and private/charter school incentives.
  - More funding shifts from public schools to private schools and homeschooling initiatives.
- Effect on Rural Schools:
  - Rural areas lack private/charter school options, so school choice doesn’t help most families.
  - Public schools lose funding as vouchers divert money to urban/suburban students who can access alternative schools.
  - Teacher shortages worsen because incentives for public school positions decline.

Reduction in Classroom Support for Special Needs Students (High Impact)
- What Happens?
  - Special education funding (IDEA) is scaled back, meaning fewer resources for Individualized Education Programs (IEPs).
  - Fewer special education teachers, aides, and therapists in schools.
- Effect on Rural Schools:
  - IEP students suffer as support is cut or delayed.
  - Schools face legal battles trying to meet federal disability mandates without sufficient funding.
  - Parents with special needs children may move to urban areas with more services, reducing rural school enrollment further.

Increased Teacher Shortages (Moderate to High Impact)
- What Happens?
  - Federal funding for teacher training and incentives is reduced.
  - Salaries stagnate, making it harder to recruit new teachers.
- Effect on Rural Schools:
  - Rural schools struggle to attract and retain teachers, especially in special education and STEM fields.
  - Increased class sizes and reduced individualized attention for students.
  - Higher teacher turnover rates, leading to less stability for students.

Reduced School Safety & Mental Health Support (Moderate Impact)
- What Happens?
  - Federal funding for school safety programs and mental health initiatives is cut.
  - School resource officers, counselors, and anti-bullying programs disappear.
- Effect on Rural Schools:
  - Increased behavioral problems with fewer resources to handle them.
  - More student mental health crises, with limited access to help.
  - Smaller districts lack security personnel, increasing vulnerability to school violence.

Projected Effects if Full Implementation Occurs (30-40% chance)

If the DOE is fully eliminated and Project 2025 is fully implemented, the above effects worsen dramatically:

No federal oversight on education quality, meaning rural Kansas schools set their own policies.
State must cover all education costs, leading to either tax increases or mass program cuts.
Complete loss of Title I, IDEA, and Pell Grants, making it harder for low-income and disabled students to succeed.
Mass school closures and consolidations as rural districts can’t afford to operate independently.
College tuition skyrockets due to loss of federal student aid, reducing access to higher education for rural students.

Summary: How Rural Education Organizations Will Respond

If Partial Implementation (Likely Outcome)

✔ Rural education groups lobby for state funding to replace federal cuts.
✔ School districts consolidate and increase local taxes to stay operational.
✔ More nonprofits and churches step in to provide education resources.
✔ Teacher recruitment strategies change, focusing on alternative licensure and lower-cost employment models.

If Full Implementation (Less Likely but More Devastating)

❌ Mass school closures, severe teacher shortages, and crippling local tax burdens.
❌ Higher dropout rates and worsening rural-urban education gaps.
❌ Public education in rural Kansas shrinks to bare minimum survival levels.

Final Prediction 📉 Rural Kansas schools will suffer major funding losses and teacher shortages under Project 2025—even if full DOE elimination does not occur.
📉 Local tax hikes or service cuts are inevitable.
📉 Special education and school safety will be the hardest hit.
📉 Without intervention, the urban-rural education divide will widen significantly.

Global Comparisons: Where Similar Systems Exist

1. Brazil (Rural & Low-Income Areas)

Similarities:
✔ Decentralized Education System – Funding and policy decisions are handled at the state and municipal level, with minimal federal oversight.
✔ Severe Funding Disparities – Wealthier regions (São Paulo, Brasília) have well-funded schools, while poor, rural areas struggle with inadequate facilities, lack of teachers, and outdated materials.
✔ Private vs. Public Divide – Private schools thrive in urban areas, but public schools are vastly underfunded, leading to high dropout rates and poor learning outcomes for low-income students.

2. India (Rural Public Schools)

Similarities:
✔ Public Schools Are Underfunded & Overcrowded – Many schools lack basic infrastructure (electricity, clean water, proper classrooms), similar to what rural Kansas might face with severe funding cuts.
✔ Private Schools for Those Who Can Afford Them – In wealthier urban areas, private schools are the standard, while rural students rely on struggling government schools.
✔ Teacher Shortages – Rural schools lack enough qualified teachers, leading to large class sizes and multi-grade classrooms where one teacher may teach multiple levels at once.

3. The Philippines (Public Schools in Rural Provinces)

Similarities:
✔ Extreme Resource Inequality – Public schools in rural areas suffer from underfunding, lack of teachers, and inadequate classroom materials.
✔ Localized Control with Limited Federal Oversight – The government sets basic education policies, but funding is left up to local governments, leading to huge disparities between urban and rural schools.
✔ Shift Toward Privatization – Families who can afford it send children to private schools, while those who can’t rely on underfunded public schools.

4. South Africa (Post-Apartheid Rural Education Struggles)

Similarities:
✔ State-Driven Education System – Provinces handle most education funding, leading to huge disparities between rich and poor areas.
✔ Public Schools Are Failing in Rural Areas – Many schools lack teachers, books, and even safe buildings, similar to what might happen in rural Kansas if funding is stripped.
✔ Students Face Financial Burdens – Though public education is technically “free,” parents still pay fees for supplies, exams, and transportation, which excludes the poorest families from accessing quality education.

Bottom Line: ❗ The Kansas education system under Project 2025 (if fully realized) would no longer resemble a modern U.S. system—it would instead look more like struggling public education systems in developing countries.

Kitchen's Ink